ERCOT 4CP · summer 2026 · graded in public

Catch the summer peaks. Skip the false alarms.

Four 15-minute intervals set your transmission bill for a year. We call them before they happen, show the inputs, and grade every call in public.

Get the 10 AM call Check our track record

0 of 3 live days flagged

Today's load vs the Horizoncross the white line and today is the new peak

ActualForecastMonth max

CLEAR

the chance today sets July's peak

Forecast max: 80.4 GW
Month max: 82.1 GW
Margin: -1.73 GW
Temp anomaly: +0.87°F
Est. curtailment: −1.5 GW
p (raw → final): 8% → 2%

These are the inputs, live. Model mercury-1.0.0.

The tight window opens in

2:18:34

2:00 PM CT to 6:00 PM CT · 4h, not the whole afternoon

If today peaks, a 4 in 5 chance it lands in this window. It narrows as forecasts firm.

Hour by hour, Jul 4

how the risk lands across the afternoon

the GO or NO-GO view

1:00 PM

0.3%

2:00 PM

0.5%

3:00 PM

0.6%

4:00 PM

0.5%

5:00 PM

0.4%

6:00 PM

0.1%

7:00 PM

0.0%

Each cell is the chance that interval turns out to be the month's peak. Cells that have closed show what the load actually was, in GW. The dot marks today's riskiest interval. Click a cell to see why.

Texas right now

zone heat drives the peak

full map and time scrubber

ERCOT demand 68.1 GW · hourly

coolerhotter than normal

How we score

The scorecard fills in after the season backtest runs.

The free API

no key needed to read

Everything on this site is in the API. Build on it, no scraping required.

curl https://wattmarkets.com/v1/predictions/daily \
  ?program=ercot-4cp-2026

Docs and live playground